A breakout year for commodities amidst robust returns in most markets
Investment returns probably shouldn’t be measured in calendar years, but rather decades. Nevertheless, as we welcome in another year it is worth reflecting on a remarkable year for global markets. One which saw continued strength for the US bourse, and healthy returns in other developed and emerging markets – these returns notwithstanding difficult geo-political and trade back drops. We also saw the Rand appreciate markedly relative to the dollar which offsets some of the dollar returns.
One theme that stands out across global and local markets was the resurgence of commodities and its ripple effect on exchange-traded products (ETPs). After a decade-long bottoming out, the commodity price upcycle that began in 2021 accelerated dramatically into 2025 reshaping ETF performance tables and investor sentiment.
Precious metals on a tear
Gold reaffirmed its role as a diversifier and investment hedge in 2025, delivering robust returns as investors, and even central banks, sought stability amid global uncertainty. The Absa NewGold ETF climbed 46%, maintaining its dominance as the largest ETF on the JSE with a market cap of over R40 billion. Silver, meanwhile, provided the surprise of the year moving from US$29 per ounce in mid-2024 to US$76 by December. This surge propelled the Absa NewWave Silver ETN to a 120% annual return, making it the standout performer among niche metals and a compelling complement to gold’s steady strength.
Platinum group metals (PGMs) also staged a comeback. Rhodium, often overlooked, posted an 82% annual return, while platinum ETFs and ETNs delivered gains north of 95%. The Absa NewGold-Platinum ETF, for instance, soared 94% in 2025, underscoring the strength of the PGM rally. These moves were underpinned by solid fundamentals and supply constraints, suggesting the cycle may have further to run into 2026.
The Satrix RESI 10 ETF, heavily weighted toward South African gold and platinum miners, emerged as the best-performing equity ETF on the JSE, surging 142% over the year. This performance highlights how resource-heavy portfolios benefited from the commodity boom. Interestingly, resource stocks were also major recipients of international buying of locally listed securities.
Global Tech Still in Play
Technology stocks underpinned by the dominant AI build out enjoyed another strong year. The 1nvest S&P 500 Info Tech Index Feeder ETF delivered 37% annualized returns over three years, reflecting the resilience of U.S. technology giants despite some analysts raising valuation concerns. The Satrix Nasdaq 100 ETF also posted strong multi-year gains, reinforcing the case for thematic and sector-based diversification.
Emerging vs. Developed Markets
Emerging markets significantly outpaced developed peers in Rand terms during 2025. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 18.2%, with Asia-focused strategies delivering similar gains and the Sygnia Itrix Emerging Markets 50 ETF surging 26.5%. In contrast, broad developed market exposure via MSCI World managed just 6.9%, while the S&P 500 Index posted a muted 3.7%. Regional bright spots included Eurozone (+19.8%) and UK (+17.3%), but overall, EM strength reflected a rebound in Asia and selective country performance, reinforcing the case for global diversification beyond U.S. and U.S tech.
Domestic Market Strength
South African equity markets had a robust year, with the FTSE/JSE Top 40 delivering 49% total return in 2025. Smart beta strategies like the Satrix RAFI 40 Index Fund outperformed traditional benchmarks, returning 54%.
Property ETFs enjoyed another strong year and are now up over 250% since the depths of their covid struggles in March 2020. Traditionally more defensive assets also performed well with the bonds returning 24%.
A multi-year perspective
Data: SA Equity – FTSE/JSE All Share Index, SA Property – FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property Index, SA Bonds – FTSE/JSE All Bond Index, SA Cash – STeFI, Foreign Equity – MSCI All Country World Index, Foreign Property – FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, Foreign Bonds – FTSE World Government Bond Index WGBI. ETFSA Calculations. Returns longer than 1 year are annualised. Returns shown in Rand.
Looking Ahead to 2026 and Seminar invitation
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